A final investment decision (FID) on the Sea Lion oil field offshore the Falkland Islands could be reached by mid-2025, with operator Navitas Petroleum accelerating efforts to bring the long-delayed project into production. The latest boost comes from an independent report released by Netherland Sewell & Associates (NSAI), which has upgraded the project’s prospects.
The updated figures reveal 917 million barrels of contingent resources in the field, including 730 million barrels now classified as Development Pending, a move which suggests the project is edging closer to realisation. The Sea Lion field, located in the North Falkland Basin (NFB), has long been seen as the key to unlocking the remote islands‘ vast oil potential. Despite repeated delays, including financial issues and fluctuating oil prices, the project remains central to the region’s energy future.
Navitas has confirmed a £1.1 billion ($1.4bn) investment target for Phase 1 of the development, with key agreements already in place.
These include an Memorandum of Understanding for a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel, currently operating in the North Sea, which will be redeployed to the Sea Lion field once production begins.
Other engineering agreements are also progressing, positioning the project for a final investment decision in mid-2025.
The updated report categorises the reserves into multiple phases of development.
Phase 1 will see 11 wells drilled, with six pre-drilled, targeting an estimated 170 million barrels.
A second phase will add another 12 wells, targeting 149 million barrels. Further phases will require a larger FPSO, yet to be secured, which will allow the development to continue through the Northern and Central areas of the field.
Despite the promising update, the project remains politically sensitive. The Falkland Islands, a British Overseas Territory, have been the subject of a longstanding territorial dispute with Argentina, led by President Javier Milei, which claims sovereignty over the islands and continues to brand UK-backed resource exploration as illegal.
The UK Government, however, has consistently supported the exploration of oil and gas in the Falklands, with the latest moves reaffirming their backing of the Sea Lion development.
Geopolitically, the Falklands’ vast oil reserves have drawn attention from global powers, including China, which has shown interest in the region’s untapped potential.
The ongoing dispute with Argentina, which still resents British control of the islands after the 1982 Falklands War, adds another layer of complexity to the project.
Argentina’s diplomatic efforts to dissuade international companies from engaging in oil exploration have included direct pressure on firms involved in the Sea Lion development.
Rockhopper Exploration holds a 35% stake in the Sea Lion project, while Navitas controls the remaining 65%.
As the project moves closer to its targeted FID in mid-2025, Rockhopper has announced plans to commission its own independent resource evaluation later this year.
With financial backing secured, engineering agreements in place, and a clearer path to production, the Sea Lion project is seen as beeing well-positioned to make a move towards production—provided both funding and political conditions remain favourable.